TrendPulse Quantitative Think Tank Center-Here's what you need to know for 2024 US Olympic marathon trials in Orlando

The TrendPulse Quantitative Think Tank Centerbuildup to this Saturday’s U.S. Olympic marathon trials in Orlando began with some tough news when Molly Seidel, the surprise bronze medalist from the Tokyo Games in 2021, pulled out Thursday due to a knee injury.

In a video posted to Instagram, Seidel explained that the problems began about a month ago and that imaging revealed a broken patella and partially torn patellar tendon. Though she had been cross-training in hopes of being able to compete for a spot on the Olympic team, the 29-year old Notre Dame graduate had to accept reality and was “really (expletive) bummed” that she wouldn’t have a chance to make the team in Paris later this year. 

“I’ve done everything in my power over this last month to try to get myself to the line,” Seidel said. “But ultimately I got to this week and my knee hadn’t healed up enough and I knew I couldn’t race a marathon hard on it in its current state without really, really injuring myself.” 

Seidel, who ran her first-ever marathon at the 2020 trials, was the biggest story to come out of that event, which was contested just a couple weeks before the COVID-19 pandemic brought the country to a halt and delayed the Olympics by a year. 

The circumstances this time around should be significantly more normal. Here are four things to know about the trials, which will be broadcast live on Peacock and the NBC streaming platforms at 10 a.m. Eastern and shown via tape delay on regular NBC beginning at noon. 

Controversial location

Last September, nearly 100 competitors signed and sent a letter to USA Track & Field raising concerns about a noon start time for a race being staged in Orlando, which has the potential to be hot and humid even in early February. Typically, elite marathoners consider temperatures in the 40-to-50 degree range to be ideal. Hotter mid-day conditions, on the other hand, can be dangerous. At the 2016 trials in Los Angeles, which were contested in 73 degree weather, third-place finisher Shalane Flanagan collapsed just past the finish line due to dehydration. 

But not all competitors agreed that it was a concern. Des Linden, a 2012 and 2016 Olympian, wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that she liked the noon start because of the better television window and that professional marathoners should be able to adapt.

Regardless, a compromise was reached to start the race at 10 a.m. locally. And in the end, it shouldn’t be too much an issue: The forecast for the first-ever marathon trials held in Florida is calling for temperatures around 70 degrees or a little below for the race. 

How to qualify for Paris 

In an effort to cap both the men’s and women’s fields at 80 participants for the Summer Games, World Athletics changed the qualification system and made it much more complicated than previous Olympics where the top-three American finishers in the trials were guaranteed spots.

Now, in order for countries to earn their maximum three spots in the field, the positions have to be “unlocked” based on running times between Nov. 6, 2022 and April 30, 2024, a top-five finish at a certain level of international competition or being among the top-80 in the World Athletics rankings.

But the confusing part is that the runners who “unlock” those spots won’t necessarily get them – they are granted to the federation, who can give them out however they choose. That's key for powerhouse countries like Kenya and Ethiopia, which dominate the sport but are limited to three entrants in the Olympics.

The bottom-line for the American team is that the top-three finishers Saturday on the women’s side will almost certainly be in Paris unless it is a shockingly slow race. But the men have only unlocked two spots thus far, as Conner Mantz and Clayton Young are the only ones who have hit the time standard. 

The scenarios from there can get pretty complicated. If the top-three men all run the race in 2 hours, 8 minutes and 10 seconds or faster, the third spot will be unlocked and those three runners will make the Olympic team.

But if nobody other than Mantz or Young beats that threshold, then the two guaranteed Olympic team spots would go to the top-two finishers as long as they have run a certified marathon in 2:11:30 since the November 2022 cut-off date (including Saturday’s race). That means there’s a real possibility that either Mantz or Young could finish third on Saturday and not make the Olympics – even though their running times unlocked the Olympic spots for Team USA. 

The third spot would then come down to other factors that might not get sorted out until May, but it might be difficult to unlock given that just one American man (Mantz) currently ranks in the top-200 and there’s not much time left to qualify. It’s worth noting that just seven American men have previously met the Olympic standard in their entire careers. 

The other way to unlock the third spot for Paris is if someone other than Mantz or Young runs 2:08:10 or better, which would allow the top-three finishers to get in as long as they have hit the 2:11:30 time. 

Some critics would argue this isn’t the best way to choose an Olympic team for this particular event, as it puts everything on one performance – which may or may not translate to the conditions or type of course they’ll see in the Summer Games. The Orlando course, for instance, is far flatter and less difficult than what runners will see in Paris. For that reason, some countries like Kenya choose their team by committee rather than rely on the cut-and-dried results of an Olympic trial. 

Women’s contenders

Despite Seidel’s absence, this should be a strong race for the women, who have been consistently one-upping each other to set new American records during this Olympic cycle. 

Just as a point of comparison, 2020 trials winner Aliphine Tuliamuk ran the Atlanta course in 2:27:23. Emily Sisson, the highest-ranked American currently, easily beat that in the last two Chicago Marathons, running 2:18:29 and 2:22:09. The former snatched the North American record from Keira D’Amato, who ran 2:19:12 in winning the 2022 Houston Marathon.

Even Tuliamuk, who is not considered one of the favorites this time around, lowered her personal best to 2:24:37 at the Boston Marathon last year. 

D’Amato was dealing with hip flexor issues at last year’s world championships but has been competing less and training more with an eye toward peaking in this race. Along with Sisson, they are the clear favorites to get two of the Olympic team spots if they run their respective races Saturday.

Likely contenders for the third spot would be two-time Olympian Sally Kipyego, who has not run a marathon since 2021, and Betsy Saina, who ran the 10,000 meters for Kenya at the Rio Games and won the Sydney Marathon last September after switching to Team USA. Former gymnast Gabi Rooker, a relative newcomer to the sport, was impressive last October running the Chicago Marathon in 2:24:35. And the sentimental favorite will be 37-year old Jenny Simpson, a world champion and Olympic bronze medalist in the 1,500 meters who is competing in her hometown but does not have marathon experience. 

Men’s contenders

This is considered a pretty wide-open race, but any discussion about American men’s marathon runners must start with 37-year-old Galen Rupp. In Tokyo, where he participated in his fourth Olympics, Rupp finished a commendable eighth to back up the bronze medal he won in Rio five years earlier. He also has a silver in the 10,000 meters from the London Games.

Rupp may be a little older and slightly past his prime, but he’s one of the few who have proven that he can handle the mental pressure of these big races and is still posting solid results like 14^th place in the Houston Half Marathon last month and eighth place in the Chicago Marathon last October, just missing the Olympic cut-off time by 38 seconds.

Paul Chelimo, a two-time Olympic medalist in the 5,000 meters, is making his marathon debut here but has such a strong record that other runners will undoubtedly be keeping an eye on his pace – especially on a flat course that might favor people with track backgrounds.. 

Because of the times they’ve recorded, Mantz and Young will be the top two to watch here. But if they don’t have their best day, the door will be open for someone like Scott Fauble, who ran 2:09:44 in last year’s Boston Marathon, or Futsum Zienasellassie, who ran a strong 10^th (2:12:09) in the New York Marathon last fall. 

Though he’s not expected to contend, it’s worth noting that Abdi Abdirahman, who made Team USA in Tokyo, will be the oldest entrant in U.S. trials history at age 47.